Weekly Analysis – August 10, 2026

Electricity futures resumed their upward trend this week. Products for the remainder of the year rose to €112.00/MWh (+€5.04/MWh), while CAL-27 increased to €70.00/MWh (+€3.00/MWh) and CAL-28 reached €57.50/MWh (+€1.10/MWh). The rebound extended across all maturities, although it was more pronounced in the nearest-term products.

Key Factors:

1. Renewable generation continues to play a decisive role in price formation: On August 5, Spain reached a new daily record for photovoltaic generation at 277 GWh, while other European markets also recorded solar generation highs. This strong output limits market pressure during the middle of the day, although it does not prevent price spikes when renewable generation declines.

2. Electricity demand continues to exert pressure during the summer period: High temperatures continue to drive electricity consumption. In Spain, demand reached 25,144 GWh in July, 6.9% higher year-on-year and the highest monthly level since January 2008.

3. Lower generation availability in Europe is once again tightening markets: The combination of lower nuclear output in France and reduced wind generation in Germany is driving sharp increases in European spot prices and adding pressure to forward price expectations.