Electricity and Gas Market:
The Latest Trends

Market Analysis for October

On the electricity side, October extends the upward trend that began in July. The French CAL 2027 ends the month at €129.67/MWh (+€29.58/MWh, or +29.6%), the largest monthly increase of the year. Since the end of June, it has more than doubled (+111%).

• CAL 2027 contract: +€29.58/MWh (+29.6%); high of €131.04/MWh on 28 October
• CAL 2028 contract: +€12.56/MWh (+18.1%)
• CAL 2029 contract: +€9.23/MWh (+13.6%), closing at its high of €76.94/MWh
• CAL 2030 contract: +€8.58/MWh (+12.4%), closing at its high of €77.70/MWh

This time, the rise in electricity is mainly explained by the rise in gas: the electricity CAL 2027 is increasing less than gas (+29.6% versus +37.7%), and the premium specific to the French electricity system identified in September does not appear to have strengthened. Signals on French production are rather positive (nuclear fleet availability close to 86% in mid-October, EDF production for 2027 estimated between 350 and 370 TWh). The premium on 2027 is therefore driven less by nuclear than by the cost of gas-fired power plants, which set the price during periods of high demand.

Finally, the increase is clearly spreading to longer-term maturities, which are no longer shielded from the rise in gas prices.

💡 What is a CAL contract?

A CAL contract sets the average energy price for a full upcoming year (2027, 2028, 2029 or 2030). It is a tool widely used by businesses that want to lock in a price over the long term, without being exposed to day-to-day fluctuations.