Electricity and Gas Market:
The Latest Trends

The month of March was marked by a sharp increase in energy markets, in response to the outbreak of war involving Israel and the United States against Iran. However, the price impact varies significantly depending on the products and maturities concerned.

Regarding electricity, the situation is somewhat different from that of gas. Indeed, unlike several neighboring countries, France is not dependent on gas for its electricity generation. Although some correlation still exists, it is the nuclear fleet and renewable energy production that drive prices on wholesale markets. In this respect, increases have been contained and mainly affect the short term (+50% in April) rather than longer-term calendar products (+18% for CAL 2027 and 8% for CAL 2028).

The situation therefore appears different from that which led to the 2022 crisis, due to strong nuclear availability. Beyond the geopolitical context, the increase observed during the last week of February is also explained by a rise in carbon prices (+6% over the week to €71.69/ton), which increases production costs linked to oil and coal.